Sunday, October 6, 2013

HCLTECH - Trending up in channel

HCLTECH is perfectly trending up in upward channel fom June last year till date. If we see the price movement in daily chart, HCLTECH always gets resisted at upper line of channel and comes down till middle trendline or towards lower line of channel.
HCLTECH results are decelaring soon, that might cause stock to break this channel on upside and  move further up and touch new lifetime highs or else it may see the lower trendlines of channel.

 

RCOM - INHS in Play?

If we observe RCOM daily chart, then we can notice that stock has made Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern (INHS Pattern)


Based on given chart, INHS pattern will break out above 163.8 for the target of 221 with SL at 140.
 

Thursday, October 3, 2013

VIPIND - Probable Patterns in Making

4th Oct 2013 - Update
VIPIND made perfect doji on 3 Oct and made bearsih hammer on 4th. But VIPIND was able to manage closing above 10DEMA at 51.08 and closed at 51.55 after making high of 53.3. Bearish hammer need to show its follow up action in coming days.

 
One need to be catiuos that if VIPIND breaches 43.50 before breaching 55, then Double Top pattern is confirmed

1st Oct 2013
As we can see in daily and weekly charts of VIPIND, an ascending triangle formation is under process (having completed 0, 2 & 4th point on trendline connecting higher lows whereas 1 & 3 on trendline connecting constant highs).


Based on daily chart, support exists at trendline connecting higher lows.
One can initiate trade based on below levels:

Option 1: Wait till pattern is complete
Buy above 55, target 1 = 62 (200DMA), target 2= 71 with SL at 49.

Option 2: Take trade now with stict SL (without waiting for pattern to complete - not advisable)
Buy above 50.6, target 1 = 55, target 2 = 62 (200DMA), target 3= 71 with SL at 49.

Important Note:
There is another pattern in making i.e. Double Top. If price breaches 43.50 before breaching 55, then Double Top pattern is confirmed and then below trade order can be placed:
Sell below 43.5, target  = 31.5, with SL at 49.55.
 

Thursday, July 4, 2013

JNSAR Trading Notes

Below are notes for trading based on JNSAR (Courtesy Ilango Sir).

JNSAR value will be given for today's date and for next trading day. See JNSAR Value here

Rule 1:
If X is less than Y, where X is Nifty Spot value and Y is Day's JNSAR value. 
If NS cross JNSAR, take a long position at Y with SL of 20 Points. If SL is hit, reverse the position and take short position. The same rule is applicable for next day JNSAR i.e. keeping 20 points SL at JNSAR value. Thereafter trade based on JNSAR value.
Rule 2:
If X is more than Y, where X is Nifty Spot and Y is day JNSAR.
If NS reaches JNSAR and breach it, take a short position at Y with SL of 20 Points. If SL is hit, reverse the position and take long position. The same rule is applicable for next day JNSAR i.e. keeping 20 points SL at JNSAR value. Thereafter trade based on JNSAR value.

Example:
Day 1 - JNSAR: 5678, NS CMP: 5648 (NS rises and cross 5678 (JNSAR) - Take Long Position, SL 20 points i.e. 5658)
  • After position, NS come down till 5668 ==> No change in Position
  • After position, NS come down till 5656 ==> Change in Position, initiate Short trade (with 20 point SL i.e. 5677 <5657>)
Day 2 - JNSAR: 5688, NS CMP: 5700 (Considering Long position on Day 1 is still valid, SL for long position - 5668 <20 class="goog-spellcheck-word" point="" span="">SL
on 2nd day JNSAR)
  • NS come down till 5678 ==> No change in Position
  • NS come down till 5666 ==> Change in Position, initiate Short trade (with 20 point SL i.e. 5687 <5667>)
Note:
- If SL hit, then reverse the position and monitor based on next day JNSAR. A JNSAR triggering in the 1st session is likely to stay and the 2nd session may get volatile.
- If the trade is likely to be affected by whipsaw at the extreme overbought or oversold condition, then allow 5-10 points filter

Rule 3:
If NS (before close of market) is between Current Day JNSAR and Next Day JNSAR, then take position accordingly.
Long Position: Day JNSAR (5699) > NS (5682) > Next Day JNSAR (5674)
Short Position: Day JNSAR (5674) < NS (5682) > Next Day JNSAR (5699)

Profit Booking System:
Always trade with min of 2 lots. Take profit on 1st lot at 50/100/150. Keep 2nd lot till JNSAR hit again to reverse the position.
Profit booking on 1st lot also depends on Hourly technicals as well as the "Aggressive intraday supports/ Resistances levels".(Need to understand this)
After profit booking, if you get Nifty to initiate a resell/ re buy closer to JNSAR, do so. This maximises profits

Combining JNSAR with TA - Need to be verified Personally, Noting here as Sir's Guidelines
Rule 4:
Bigger trade possibilities are highlighted whenever the Hour JNSAR & Day JNSAR has concurred and supported by other technical considerations

Rule 5:
a. Short at Hour JNSAR when MACD enters in negative zone
b. Long at Hour JNSAR when S. MACD turns up in deep negative zone (-26.13)
c. Long at Hour JNSAR when S. MACD turns up in deep negative zone with divergence/stochastic at bottom
d. Short at Hour JNSAR when S. MACD turns down from high, Stochastic turns down (breaks 90/80)
e. If No divergence in MACD, stochastic is either >80 or <20 a="" class="goog-spellcheck-word" span="">pply
10+ point filter to Hour JNSAR, depending on long/short positionf. Long at Hour JNSAR when, S MACD is in deep negative and Stochastic is posed to go above 20. For e.g. at hour, MACD: -55 and Stochastic: 18.54
g. Short at Hour JNSAR, when S. MACD is in deep negative and Stochastic goes below 20
h. Long at positive divergence in S MACD and Stochastic
i. After taking position (Short/long), add 10+ point filter to next hour JNSAR

Methodology for beginners to learn JNSAR trading
Crorepati suggested methodology for beginners to learn JNSAR trading,
1. Select few scrips of nifty 50 i.e Tata motors, Wipro and RIL
2. Buy just 2 stocks when JNSAR long triggers and sell when JNSAR triggers and no shorts as these are stocks.
3. Do for a month with 3 stocks and move to NIFTY BEES.
4. Once well versed with nifty bees move to mininifty then to nifty futures.
Advantages: Low investment i.e - not more than Rs.5000. As any 3 of the stocks will be triggering now and then, the learning process will be quickened. As these are stocks, one can hold without loosing capital.
Whenever Nifty is closing between DHEma and DLEma, it is in a range bound mode and one should accordingly part book @ resistances and supports(Trade).

Links for JNSAR:
http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2010/09/jnsar-stop-and-reverse-trading-method.html
http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/search/label/JNSAR
http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2011/05/learn-before-you-start-out-to-earn.html
http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2011/03/jnsar-with-ta-ew-techtable-inputs.html