Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Basics: Trading Based on MACD

MACD is constructed by making an average of the difference between two moving averages. The difference of the original two moving averages and the moving average of the difference can be plotted as two lines, one fast and one slow.
Uses
Most modern charting software now includes MACD as standard. Once selected to display in your charting software it normally shows up as two lines plotted on an open scale against the zero line. These two lines will normally be of different color or one line a solid line and the other a dotted line. Frequently used settings are 12 and 26 period exponential moving averages with 9 period exponential moving average as the signal line.
Although there are three moving averages mentioned we only see two lines. The simplest method of use is when the two lines cross. If the faster signal line crosses above the slower line then a buy signal is generated and vice versa. It is also used as an overbought and oversold indicator. The higher above the zero both lines are the more overbought it becomes and the lower below the zero line both lines are the more oversold it becomes.
It may also lead to a stronger signal if the signal line crosses down when it is overbought and crosses up when it is oversold. The last common use of MACD is that of divergence.
If the MACD is making new lows and the price of the security is not making new lows that is one form of divergence (bullish divergence). Also, if the MACD has made a high and starts to head down but price continues up that is another type of divergence (bearish divergence) and may lead to an indication of a change in direction.
Use Of MACDMACD also used as a trend indicator with parameters set at 8 and 18 period exponential moving averages with a 9 period exponential moving average as the signal line.
If we are trading day charts we would be looking at the MACD on the weekly. If we are trading an hourly chart we might look at the MACD on the daily. As long as the signal line remains above or below the MACD line on the next higher time frame you know the trend is still in place.
We can get the confirmation of trend in 30mins chart for intraday trading. For example, Nifty is bullish (i.e. fast line crossed slow line in upward direction), then we may check 5min chart and take positions accordingly

Nifty Future Levels for 17th Nov 09, Tuesday

Nifty Futures as on 16th Nov, 09
Open: 5041
High: 5082.5
Low: 5038
Close: 5062.5
Nifty Future Levels for 17th Nov 09, Tuesday
Pivot: 5061
Resistance 1: 5084
Resistance 2: 5105.5
Resistance 3: 5128.5
Support 1: 5039.5
Support 2: 5016.5
Support 3: 4995

Note: Nifty has break out its critical level of 5052. Now bullishness can be expected.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Nifty Future Levels for 16th Nov 09, Monday

Nifty Futures as on 13th Nov, 09
Open: 4948
High: 5023
Low: 4946
Close: 5002
Nifty Future Levels for 16th Nov 09, Monday
Pivot: 4990
Resistance 1: 5034
Resistance 2: 5067
Resistance 3: 5111
Support 1: 4957
Support 2: 4913
Support 3: 4880

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Basics: Pivot Based Trading

The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels.
Every day the market you are following has an open, high, low and a close for the day (some markets like forex are 24 hours but generally use 5pm EST as the open and close). This information basically contains all the data you need to use pivot points.
The reason pivot points are so popular is that they are predictive as opposed to lagging. You use the information of the previous day to calculate potential turning points for the day you are about to trade (present day).Because so many traders follow pivot points you will often find that the market reacts at these levels. This give you an opportunity to trade.

The formula I use to compute Pivots , Supports and Resistences are given below:
Resistance 3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)
Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot - Low
Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3
Support 1 = 2 * Pivot - High
Support 2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)
Support 3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)

As you can see from the above formula, just by having the previous days high, low and close you eventually finish up with 7 points, 3 resistance levels, 3 support levels and the actual pivot point.
If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is long trades. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades.
The three most important pivot points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point.
The general idea behind trading pivot points are to look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries.
A perfect set would be for the market to open above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 then go on to R2. You would enter on a break of R1 with a target of R2 and if the market was really strong close half at R2 and target R3 with the remainder of your position.Unfortunately life is not that simple and we have to deal with each trading day the best way we can.

Strategies:1. The Breakout Trade
2. The Pullback Trade
3. Breakout of Resistance
4. Advanced