Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Basics: Trading Based on MACD

MACD is constructed by making an average of the difference between two moving averages. The difference of the original two moving averages and the moving average of the difference can be plotted as two lines, one fast and one slow.
Uses
Most modern charting software now includes MACD as standard. Once selected to display in your charting software it normally shows up as two lines plotted on an open scale against the zero line. These two lines will normally be of different color or one line a solid line and the other a dotted line. Frequently used settings are 12 and 26 period exponential moving averages with 9 period exponential moving average as the signal line.
Although there are three moving averages mentioned we only see two lines. The simplest method of use is when the two lines cross. If the faster signal line crosses above the slower line then a buy signal is generated and vice versa. It is also used as an overbought and oversold indicator. The higher above the zero both lines are the more overbought it becomes and the lower below the zero line both lines are the more oversold it becomes.
It may also lead to a stronger signal if the signal line crosses down when it is overbought and crosses up when it is oversold. The last common use of MACD is that of divergence.
If the MACD is making new lows and the price of the security is not making new lows that is one form of divergence (bullish divergence). Also, if the MACD has made a high and starts to head down but price continues up that is another type of divergence (bearish divergence) and may lead to an indication of a change in direction.
Use Of MACDMACD also used as a trend indicator with parameters set at 8 and 18 period exponential moving averages with a 9 period exponential moving average as the signal line.
If we are trading day charts we would be looking at the MACD on the weekly. If we are trading an hourly chart we might look at the MACD on the daily. As long as the signal line remains above or below the MACD line on the next higher time frame you know the trend is still in place.
We can get the confirmation of trend in 30mins chart for intraday trading. For example, Nifty is bullish (i.e. fast line crossed slow line in upward direction), then we may check 5min chart and take positions accordingly

Nifty Future Levels for 17th Nov 09, Tuesday

Nifty Futures as on 16th Nov, 09
Open: 5041
High: 5082.5
Low: 5038
Close: 5062.5
Nifty Future Levels for 17th Nov 09, Tuesday
Pivot: 5061
Resistance 1: 5084
Resistance 2: 5105.5
Resistance 3: 5128.5
Support 1: 5039.5
Support 2: 5016.5
Support 3: 4995

Note: Nifty has break out its critical level of 5052. Now bullishness can be expected.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Nifty Future Levels for 16th Nov 09, Monday

Nifty Futures as on 13th Nov, 09
Open: 4948
High: 5023
Low: 4946
Close: 5002
Nifty Future Levels for 16th Nov 09, Monday
Pivot: 4990
Resistance 1: 5034
Resistance 2: 5067
Resistance 3: 5111
Support 1: 4957
Support 2: 4913
Support 3: 4880

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Basics: Pivot Based Trading

The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels.
Every day the market you are following has an open, high, low and a close for the day (some markets like forex are 24 hours but generally use 5pm EST as the open and close). This information basically contains all the data you need to use pivot points.
The reason pivot points are so popular is that they are predictive as opposed to lagging. You use the information of the previous day to calculate potential turning points for the day you are about to trade (present day).Because so many traders follow pivot points you will often find that the market reacts at these levels. This give you an opportunity to trade.

The formula I use to compute Pivots , Supports and Resistences are given below:
Resistance 3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)
Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot - Low
Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3
Support 1 = 2 * Pivot - High
Support 2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)
Support 3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)

As you can see from the above formula, just by having the previous days high, low and close you eventually finish up with 7 points, 3 resistance levels, 3 support levels and the actual pivot point.
If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is long trades. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades.
The three most important pivot points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point.
The general idea behind trading pivot points are to look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries.
A perfect set would be for the market to open above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 then go on to R2. You would enter on a break of R1 with a target of R2 and if the market was really strong close half at R2 and target R3 with the remainder of your position.Unfortunately life is not that simple and we have to deal with each trading day the best way we can.

Strategies:1. The Breakout Trade
2. The Pullback Trade
3. Breakout of Resistance
4. Advanced

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Nifty Future Pivot Levels for 29th Sept, Tuesday

Nifty Futures as on 25th Sep, 09
Open: 4958
High: 5007
Low: 4932
Close: 4960
Nifty Future Levels for 29th Sep09, Thursday
Pivot: 4966
Resistance 1: 5001
Resistance 2: 5042
Resistance 3: 5076
Support 1: 4925
Support 2: 4891
Support 3: 4850

Scope of learning Technical Analysis

Hi Friends,
Now, I have started learning baiscs of Technical Analysis. I have prepared the following area which I need to cover. Will update more such areas while learning. Also, I will be posting charts to eloborate my understanding and concept in depth.
1. INDICATORS

1.1 SMA (Simple Moving Average)
1.2 EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
1.3 ADX (Average Directional Index)
1.4 Aroon Up / Down Indicator
1.5 Bollinger Bands
1.6 RSI (Relative Strength Index)MACD
2. CANDLESTICK CHARTS

2.1 Introduction to candlestick charts
2.2 Various formations
2.3 Bulls vs bears
2.4 What candlestick charts don’t tell
2.5 Candlestick Positioning
2.6 Star position
2.7 Harami position
2.8 Long Shadow Reversals
2.9 Hammer and Hanging Man
2.10 Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Strategy for Nifty Options in October 2009 Expiry

Story continued in Sept expiry also. But what was the story? Very simple...story of making losses again and again either in stock deliveries or option trading. Never traded in Nifty Futures as dont have enough margin to trade into it. But for a change very less loss incurred compared to the previous months (reason: amount left was less :)).
Now its high time to recover losses which I incurred till date (figures I wont disclose, as I myself don't want to know or better to say I don't want to realize). But billion dollar question is how to recover losses?? Do I need to devise some strategy?? WOW...hehehe...
One drawback in all my previous option trades were, "I never hedged my trades". So decided will do this time.
If I try to see the broader range of nifty movement in Oct expiry, it shall be 4500 - 5500. And please dont ask me how I derived this range. This range is totally based on my readings of articles/blogs/TAs views/FAs views etc. etc..
I will keep updating this post with all strategies which I may follow in this expiry.
As per the current market trend/ expectation, nifty is about to touch much higher levels (highly bullish signals as per TAs). And as per my understanding and observations, any megamove in share/indices have to undergo some corrections. Also, nifty in sept has moved straight away from 4580 levels to 5003 without having any corrections. Hence, point is, correction is on the cards but when....NO IDEA !!!! It might happen in sept expiry also or in the initial weeks of Oct. As, now only 3 trading sessions are left in sept expiry...so chances are null in sept expiry. Hence, initial weeks of October can get this golden chance.
Strategy 1 A.
Nifty correction in initial weeks of oct and thereon bull will again give the major rally. Hence, will watch the premiums of 5500CE (CMP = 20) and 4500PE (CMP = 38).
Step 1. Buy this straddle at the suitable time when the combined cost shall be less (considering premiums shall be high in first few days of any new expiry due to time value).
Step 2a. If nifty reaches 4500/4600 level first, then square off 4500PE positions and hold 5500CE.
Step 2b. Average 5500CE position with 5000CE when nifty is at 4500/4600 levels.
Step 3a. If nifty reaches 5400/5500 level first, then square off 5500CE positions and hold 4500PE.
Step 3b. Average 4500PE position with 5000PE when nifty is at 5400/5500 levels.
One can enter into this type of straddle with any combination of strike price depending on the investment capability.
Strategy 2A
Nifty will definetly cross 5000 mark in one of the remaining session in sept series and then in first few days of Oct and will be pulled back for 300 points corrections, so that its megaupmove will be easy and smooth.
Step1. When Nifty crosses 5000 mark, 4500PE can be bought (less than 30).
Step 2a. If nifty tanks towards the level of 4600/4500, one can come out of the put option positions and book profits.
Step 2b. If nifty move up after crossing 5000 without any correction and touces 5200, then average your 4500PE trade with 4700PE. Book profits when nifty will tank to 4600 levels
Step 3a. Buy 4800/4900CE (at watever the price is available) when nifty is at 4600/4500 level. Book profits when nifty will cross 5200.
Note: I may update the Nifty range in Oct Expiry in due course. Hence, if any change in range, will impact the purchase of strikes of put/calls for the given strategy, averaging of trade and profit booking.
All above given strategies are just my views. One should not trade as per the given strategy. If at all, they do, that will be at their own risk.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Nifty Levels for 20th Aug 09, Thursday

Nifty as on 19th Aug, 09
Open: 4457
High: 4477
Low: 4353
Close: 4394
Nifty Levels for 20th Aug 09, Thursday
Pivot: 4408
Resistance 1: 4463
Resistance 2: 4532
Resistance 3: 4587
Support 1: 4339
Support 2: 4284
Support 3: 4215
From the recent observations, I learnt that how we can identify the Trend Reversal levels. The levels, above/below which, nifty/stock successively fails to cross or fails to close above/below it, can be termed as Resistance/Support. But the levels from which nifty/stock takes the U-Turn can be termed as Trend Reversal levels.
Recent example: Nifty Future 4731 level: Nifty Future tried 4 times in a row to cross 4731 level but failed and resulted into complete bearish sentiments from the bullish. This shall be termed as perfect Trend Reversal Level.
Now observing at Nifty Future level of 4351. Nifty Futures are trying continuously to go beyond this level and settle down below this, but failed on each try and in fact nifty showed sharp up move from this level. Can we term this level as Trend Reversal Level? As per my perspective, the answer is No. The reason being, bearish sentiments are still higher than that of bullish one.
One point need to be kept in mind that, if this level (Trend Reversal) is breached decisively, we can see the sharp up/down move till the next Resistance/support level.
Hence, are we going to see 4200/4100 levels soon or bearish outlook can be transformed into short term bullish outlook and achieve levels like 4700/5000?
I wish I could answer all these questions. Lets see, what nifty is having for us in next 7 trading sessions of this august expiry.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Nifty Future Pivot Levels for 13 Aug 09, Thursday

Long time I wished that I should start posting something which I really like and was wondering what it is...!!! What is that which makes me impatient...?? Which I like to know more and more..feels like to go much more into the depth of it and excel in that...Somehow I realized its nuthn but Trading / Investment Strategies in Stock Market....the superb way of making profits / loosing your hard earned money...I always been attracted to this so called unpredictable and insensitive market and made huge losses. But as everyone knows about my "Never Die Attitude" :)), always tried to cover up those losses and in turn made some more huge losses...LOL..
After committing all those mistakes, I learnt that before investing your hard earned money one should know the different trading strategies, planning, money management etc etc.. very well. So thought why not start learning some of those trading strategies first and later on will equip myself with other planning and money management skills.
So took first step towards learning the strategies with Technical Analysis. So, to start with I learnt how to compute pivots, resistances and support levels for any stock or nifty or nifty futures.
Now onwards, I will keep posting the Pivots, Resistances and Support levels for Nifty Futures in this blog. Slowly will enhance this blog with some more strategies as and when I will learn. Lets see, how long it will go and how much I will learn...
Nifty Future Levels for 13 Aug 09, Thursday
Pivot: 4432.33
Resistance1: 4513.67
Resistance2: 4555.33
Resistance1: 4636.67
Support1: 4390.67
Support2: 4309.33
Support3: 4267.67